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They really got carried away, though in the context of that time there seemed any number of legitimate reasons for this. Gold investors were bidding up the precious metal like there was some kind of shortage, the price in dollars making a new record high (LBMA morning fix) on August 7. The way it was reported in the mainstream, this was more confirmation of Jay Powell’s flood of money printing making its way into every last corner of the financial world driving gold bugs nuts in the process (as intended).
Nah.
A few days before all that, the 10-year US Treasury yield had sunk back down near its crisis extremes. On August 4, the note finished trading to rate just 52 bps, less than the previous record low close set March 9.
Since early August, gold and the long end of the yield curve (as well as the shape of the short end) have merely continued their close coincidence of inverse behavior. It just isn’t a coincidence, of course, the mainstream view of gold is almost all backward and has been for a very, very long time (like everything else when it comes to money, finance, and economy).
Dating back more than two years now, gold prices have been pushed higher by deflationary expectations like those embedded within lower and lower risk-free rates represented in the longer UST’s. Gross financial distress of the global dollar shortage kind, totally the opposite of the inflationary flood we keep hearing about.
Gold is actually rising instead on concerns that central banks and governments around the world will fail in their collective efforts to support already deflationary economies…As always, money-less monetary policy comes down to ridiculous, easily disproved deception. Other than that, there’s nothing else in the official central banker toolkit. Realizing this, you might then understand exactly why gold and bonds are being bid concurrently in this way.
Now that gold prices are falling, you hear very little about them – in favor of the increasingly ridiculous BOND ROUT!!!! resurrected by this Inflation Hysteria #2 which suddenly can’t include rising gold prices.
Curious.
Even trading in Treasuries is about as un-inflationary as you might imagine. For all that’s supposedly going right right now, how is that longer-term rates haven’t really budged? Unbelievably tiny move. The 10-year note, for all this fuss and bother of late, vaccines and huge government stipends, it is all of 40 bps off its record close while basically the same as when Pfizer made its stunning vaccine public.
This barely qualifies as a market fluctuation, let alone a categorical shift in the Federal Reserve’s desperation direction.
Not for trying, mind you. While gold investors play off bond yields, speculative bond investors keep pounding Powell for Powell. There hasn’t been a single significant nugget of news the past few months that these shorts – betting on Jay getting something right for once – haven’t shorted more. And it hasn’t mattered what that news actually is.
Today, for example, there was two of these only hours apart (below)! First, earlier on in opening trading when “news” reached the pits of the federal government inching closer to a spending deal that everyone in the world already knows is going to get done at some point.
And then, more ridiculous still, another selloff attempt when the FOMC statement was announced and proclaimed not dovish enough. Or was it too dovish? In the middle somewhere? Good news was bad news? Or was this bad news which can be good news?
Doesn’t matter, because the shorts short on every bit of news regardless.
In reality, gold prices haven’t fallen all the much off their highs because Treasury yields haven’t come up much off their lows and seem to ably weather these storms of shorting whenever they inevitably show up. So much big stuff supposedly in the news, never much in the markets.
On the contrary, if there have been any serious developments they’re elsewhere – such as in bills. While attention gets drawn purposefully to make mountains out of those tiniest molehills out the longer end, where it really counts (where it reallycounted in March) there’s been increasing demand for the same collateral-center instruments. But you never hear a single thing about this:
Despite this ongoing deflationary caution, because of the ongoing collateral concerns behind it, even inflation expectations (TIPS) have been similarly subdued. Like the small backup in nominal yields, inflation breakevens and rates have been touted and thrown around like some bullet-proof proof positive that the Fed’s finally hit its magic money number.
The inflation genie’s out of the bottle!
Typically, these are done by comparing inflation expectations today with inflation expectations earlier in the year, hoping no one notices the missing context.
That context goes something like this: inflation breakevens right now, moved upward a little bit on nothing more than oil prices modestly hoping for vaccines to deliver an immediate end to the nightmare, still expectations are about where they were in the middle of last year or August 2015.
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Yeah, not exactly a fiery infernos of out-of-control monetary excess; on the contrary, August 2015, for one thing, that had meant CNY and Wall Street flash crash, the same things which add up to dollar shortages and more getting stuck in the other direction.
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And that’s what this broader survey of markets actually indicates. Not just stubbornly high gold, persistently low nominals, inflation expectations that haven’t surged despite all the awesomeness piled onto WTI, just about anything else including interest rate swaps aren’t anywhere close to the hysteria.
In fact, in the middle of the curve swap spreads have once more begun what sure looks like an ominous descent of the non-inflation kind. And interest rate swaps here is right where inflation – if it was real – would be showing up. Trillions in “fixed” income and balance sheet factors globally which, if the Fed had done anything close to what’s being said, you better believe these would absolutely require, nay demand, piling up in swaps (decompressing spreads).
The most you can say of any of these things is that right now it isn’t as bad as March/April. That’s not inflationary; it’s the lowest of potential standards possible. A small relative change that’s, par for the mainstream course, being blown way out of proportion.
Because those proportions aren’t ever included.
More to the point, there’s enough elsewhere to explain why this is; why the best that can be said is thankfully there’s no third GFC right now at this moment. However, that doesn’t mean these same deflationary and potentially textbook deflationary problems have gone away, they’ve just gone away from the media and mainstream commentary over-eager to put all this behind us.
Got to get back to loving the technocracy again. After the Bernanke debacle and the decade-plus spent trying to clean that up, and only sweeping it under the rug, the Federal Reserve can’t possibly fail this big, can it?
Haruhiko Kuroda would like a word.
When Kate Middleton, the Duchess of Cambridge, stepped onto the red carpet at the BAFTA Film Awards in February wearing a Van Cleef & ArpelsAlhambra necklace and matching earrings, the iconic designs were immediately recognizable to serious jewelry lovers and casual fans alike. What they may not have been as familiar with is the origin story of the more-than-50-year-old collection.
During the late 1960s, fine jewelry changed. Even the most haute of haute French houses expanded their inventories to include more daytime jewels to match the increasingly casual look of women’s fashion and to suit the 9-to-5 schedule of many who were joining the workforce. In 1969, Cartier launched its diamond-free gold Love bracelet. One year before that, Jacques Arpels came up with the all-gold Alhambra necklace.
Jacques — the nephew of Estelle Arpels, who founded Van Cleef & Arpels with her husband, Alfred, in 1906 — liked to say, “To be lucky, you must believe in luck.” This mantra is embodied in the four-leaf clover motif, which can be found in sketches in the house’s archives dating to the 1910s. The quatrefoil shape also has architectural resonance, found in Gothic and Renaissance structures and, of course, in such Moorish buildings as the Alhambra palace in Granada, Spain, which gave its name to the Van Cleef & Arpels line.
The first Alhambra jewel was a long gold chain with 20 gold clovers, the surface of each creased and edged in gold beads. In 1971, the house began making the motif in colorful opaque hard stones, including malachite, lapis lazuli, onyx, coral, tiger’s-eye and turquoise. Today, pieces incorporating these stones and a beaded border are referred to as Vintage Alhambra.
From the moment the collection launched, it was a sensation. The easy-to-wear necklaces were exactly what women wanted to elevate their button-down blouses and wrap dresses. The jewels’ appeal spanned decades and generations. In April 1969, the 26-year-old Swedish actress Britt Ekland donned the original Alhambra gold style for the cover of Vogue. French actress Romy Schneider was around 36 when she sported an onyx and gold version in the provocative 1974 French film Le mouton enragé (Love at the Top), depicting relationships during the sexual revolution. Grace Kelly was photographed several times wearing her all gold and onyx and gold Alhambra necklaces during the seventies, including in the 1977 NBC special about her life, “Once upon a Time Is Now . . . The Story of Princess Grace,” filmed when she was 48.
The Alhambra line has never gone out of production. Van Cleef & Arpels has refreshed the design by playing with the scale of the motifs and incorporating different gems, such as mother-of-pearl, carnelian and blue agate. It has also extended the collection to include earrings, bracelets, rings and a watch, as well as different necklace styles.
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As for any icon with a long track record, the popularity of the Alhambra line, as measured in high-profile sightings, has ebbed and flowed. In the aughts, Reese Witherspoon was routinely photographed in her onyx Alhambra necklace. Sharon Stone and Mariah Carey were also seen sporting pieces from collection. Kelly Rutherford wore several variations when she played the Upper East Side socialite Lily van der Woodsen on Gossip Girl.
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Van Cleef & Arpels reignited Alhambra enthusiasm in 2018, when it celebrated the line’s 50th anniversary with new designs and festivities. And royalty is once more playing a part. The Duchess of Cornwall, Camilla Parker Bowles, has Alhambra pieces. And it is widely believed that the Alhambra set the Duchess of Cambridge wore to the BAFTAs was given to her by Prince Charles, her father-in-law, for her birthday, which was a couple of weeks earlier.
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The so-called “Kate Middleton Effect” has been known to make an item she wears a best seller or turn a little-known brand into a household name. Van Cleef & Arpels hardly needs any help, but the duchess surely sparked even greater interest in Alhambra, gaining new admirers for a legendary brand that already has them in droves.